A hybrid ML physics model, NeuralGCM, with persisted SST and sea ice anomalies, yields skillful seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency in the North Atlantic and East Pacific (r around 0.7 over 1990-2023).
These waves mostly appear in the tropics and violate the weak gradient constraint of the real-world atmosphere (Charney 1963, Sobel and Bretherton 2000)
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Advancing Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hybrid AI-Physics Climate Model
A hybrid ML physics model, NeuralGCM, with persisted SST and sea ice anomalies, yields skillful seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency in the North Atlantic and East Pacific (r around 0.7 over 1990-2023).