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On the admissibility of bounds on the mean of discrete, scalar probability distributions from an iid sample

1 Pith paper cite this work, alongside 417 external citations. Polarity classification is still indexing.

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abstract

We address the problem of producing a lower bound for the mean of a discrete probability distribution, with known support over a finite set of real numbers, from an iid sample of that distribution. Up to a constant, this is equivalent to bounding the mean of a multinomial distribution (with known support) from a sample of that distribution. Our main contribution is to characterize the complete set of admissible bound functions for any sample space, and to show that certain previously published bounds are admissible. We prove that the solution to each one of a set of simple-to-state optimization problems yields such an admissible bound. Single examples of such bounds, such as the trinomial bound by Miratrix and Stark [2009] have been previously published, but without an analysis of admissibility, and without a discussion of the full set of alternative admissible bounds. In addition to a variety of results about admissible bounds, we prove the non-existence of optimal bounds for sample spaces with supports of size greater than 1 and samples sizes greater than 1.

fields

stat.CO 1

years

2026 1

verdicts

CONDITIONAL 1

representative citing papers

Towards Automated Confidence Bound Provers and Searchers

stat.CO · 2026-07-11 · conditional · novelty 7.0

Any T-ordered valid lower confidence bound is a relaxation of a T-optimal optimization problem that can be lower-bounded by a linear-size MILP when T is linear and monotonic.

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  • Towards Automated Confidence Bound Provers and Searchers stat.CO · 2026-07-11 · conditional · none · ref 1 · internal anchor

    Any T-ordered valid lower confidence bound is a relaxation of a T-optimal optimization problem that can be lower-bounded by a linear-size MILP when T is linear and monotonic.