Partial confirmed evidence non-monotonically increases LLMs' confident hallucinations, formalized as PHC, with a hop-depth threshold law and RAG routing gains that close most of the oracle gap.
The Expected Calibration Error (ECE) is 0.1069, indicating moderate miscalibration
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Anchored Confabulation: Partial Evidence Non-Monotonically Amplifies Confident Hallucination in LLMs
Partial confirmed evidence non-monotonically increases LLMs' confident hallucinations, formalized as PHC, with a hop-depth threshold law and RAG routing gains that close most of the oracle gap.