Non-asymptotic decomposition of conditional miscoverage in conformal prediction into score-estimation error, finite-sample calibration error, and intrinsic conditional-mismatch error, with guidance for model selection and extensions to covariate shift and structured data.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology , volume=
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Trimming helps conformal prediction under contamination precisely when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities without biasing clean scores, otherwise the retained mixture coefficient prevents substantial decontamination.
A model-agnostic two-stage estimator for conditional quantiles that represents the high-fidelity quantile as a low-fidelity quantile evaluated at a covariate-dependent level, with theory on faster convergence rates under shape similarity.
StCP leverages transfer learning to stabilize the size of conformal prediction sets without additional target labels.
citing papers explorer
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A Unified Theory of Conditional Coverage in Conformal Prediction with Applications
Non-asymptotic decomposition of conditional miscoverage in conformal prediction into score-estimation error, finite-sample calibration error, and intrinsic conditional-mismatch error, with guidance for model selection and extensions to covariate shift and structured data.
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When Does Trimming Help Conformal Prediction? A Retained-Law Diagnostic under Calibration Contamination
Trimming helps conformal prediction under contamination precisely when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities without biasing clean scores, otherwise the retained mixture coefficient prevents substantial decontamination.
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Multi-Fidelity Quantile Regression
A model-agnostic two-stage estimator for conditional quantiles that represents the high-fidelity quantile as a low-fidelity quantile evaluated at a covariate-dependent level, with theory on faster convergence rates under shape similarity.
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Stable Localized Conformal Prediction via Transduction
StCP leverages transfer learning to stabilize the size of conformal prediction sets without additional target labels.