Simulation study and Ethiopian cohort data show that particle MCMC and conditional normalizing flows both deliver accurate parameter estimates and forecasts for stochastic compartmental epidemic models with intractable likelihoods.
Rank-normalization, folding, and localization: An improved ˆRfor assessing convergence of MCMC (with discussion).Bayesian analysis, 16(2), 2021
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Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods for Stochastic Compartmental Models in Epidemiological Research
Simulation study and Ethiopian cohort data show that particle MCMC and conditional normalizing flows both deliver accurate parameter estimates and forecasts for stochastic compartmental epidemic models with intractable likelihoods.