A Bayesian method clusters time series by similarity in the timing of their most recent volatility change-points via a metric on posterior distributions, demonstrated on S&P 500 returns.
Scalable Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering and Classification
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abstract
We develop a scalable multi-step Monte Carlo algorithm for inference under a large class of nonparametric Bayesian models for clustering and classification. Each step is "embarrassingly parallel" and can be implemented using the same Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The simplicity and generality of our approach makes inference for a wide range of Bayesian nonparametric mixture models applicable to large datasets. Specifically, we apply the approach to inference under a product partition model with regression on covariates. We show results for inference with two motivating data sets: a large set of electronic health records (EHR) and a bank telemarketing dataset. We find interesting clusters and favorable classification performance relative to other widely used competing classifiers.
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stat.ME 1years
2019 1verdicts
UNVERDICTED 1representative citing papers
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Dynamic time series clustering via volatility change-points
A Bayesian method clusters time series by similarity in the timing of their most recent volatility change-points via a metric on posterior distributions, demonstrated on S&P 500 returns.