A live, leakage-free benchmark of six frontier LLMs across all 104 World Cup matches finds they match, not beat, the betting market and herd on outcomes.
Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) , year =
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WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament
A live, leakage-free benchmark of six frontier LLMs across all 104 World Cup matches finds they match, not beat, the betting market and herd on outcomes.