Boltzmann-transformed betting odds, combined with team history via a Dirichlet prior, are claimed to outperform raw odds in a Kelly betting simulation, but the evaluation is statistically and methodologically flawed.
Betting Against the Crowd: A Complex Systems Approach
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Boltzmann-Informed Probabilities
Boltzmann-transformed betting odds, combined with team history via a Dirichlet prior, are claimed to outperform raw odds in a Kelly betting simulation, but the evaluation is statistically and methodologically flawed.