Predictive Bayesian inference posteriors concentrate onto a forward-model-dependent quantity and produce miscalibrated credible sets unless the predictive model contains the true data-generating process.
arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.01358 , year=
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An efficient method is proposed to assess operating characteristics for generalized posteriors by modeling their summaries as functions of sample size and simulating at only two points.
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Concentration and Calibration in Predictive Bayesian Inference
Predictive Bayesian inference posteriors concentrate onto a forward-model-dependent quantity and produce miscalibrated credible sets unless the predictive model contains the true data-generating process.
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Economical Experimental Design with Generalized Posteriors
An efficient method is proposed to assess operating characteristics for generalized posteriors by modeling their summaries as functions of sample size and simulating at only two points.