Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.
Linkage between a dominant mode in the lower stratosphere and the western hemisphere circulation pattern.Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (17):e2020GL090105
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State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability
Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.