Rolling-origin evaluation windows misrepresent the atom mass of intermittent time series, a permutation control isolates coupling contributions at fixed CRPS, and an autoregressive hurdle beats a conditional flow on five of six datasets under run-length statistics.
Timeflow: Towards stochastic-aware and efficient time series generation via flow matching modeling,
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Evaluating Generative Time-Series Models on Data with Point Masses
Rolling-origin evaluation windows misrepresent the atom mass of intermittent time series, a permutation control isolates coupling contributions at fixed CRPS, and an autoregressive hurdle beats a conditional flow on five of six datasets under run-length statistics.