Conformal prediction generates valid sets of future conflict state sequences under a Markov assumption, providing robust uncertainty quantification compared to point predictions from likelihood methods.
Conformal inference for time series over graphs.arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.11049
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Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Conformal prediction generates valid sets of future conflict state sequences under a Markov assumption, providing robust uncertainty quantification compared to point predictions from likelihood methods.