Multilayer cereal trade model shows substitution mitigates risk in the shocked layer but induces risks in substitute layers, producing four regimes from resilient to systemic crisis governed by shock intensity, substitution extent, substitute supply capacity, and inter-layer structure.
Preprint at https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.03502 (2024)
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Conditional effects of cross-product substitution on systemic risk in multilayer food trade networks
Multilayer cereal trade model shows substitution mitigates risk in the shocked layer but induces risks in substitute layers, producing four regimes from resilient to systemic crisis governed by shock intensity, substitution extent, substitute supply capacity, and inter-layer structure.