Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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GWTC-4 data analysis yields a pair-instability mass gap lower edge at 44.3^{+5.9}_{-3.5} M_⊙, an S-factor of 268^{+195}_{-116} keV b for ^{12}C(α,γ)^{16}O, and two populations supporting both direct formation and hierarchical mergers.
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Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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Gravitational-wave constraints on the pair-instability mass gap and nuclear burning in massive stars
GWTC-4 data analysis yields a pair-instability mass gap lower edge at 44.3^{+5.9}_{-3.5} M_⊙, an S-factor of 268^{+195}_{-116} keV b for ^{12}C(α,γ)^{16}O, and two populations supporting both direct formation and hierarchical mergers.