Prediction bottlenecks do not discover causal structure beyond what linear models, Lasso, and classical Granger/PCMCI methods achieve; intervention benefits are mostly sample-size confounds, leaving a standardized falsification benchmark as the main contribution.
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Predictive representation learning structurally favors encoding slower or less noisy environment modes over causal system modes, as shown by an impossibility theorem for linear-Gaussian dynamics and large-scale neural experiments.
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Prediction Bottlenecks Don't Discover Causal Structure (But Here's What They Actually Do)
Prediction bottlenecks do not discover causal structure beyond what linear models, Lasso, and classical Granger/PCMCI methods achieve; intervention benefits are mostly sample-size confounds, leaving a standardized falsification benchmark as the main contribution.
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The Predictive-Causal Gap: An Impossibility Theorem and Large-Scale Neural Evidence
Predictive representation learning structurally favors encoding slower or less noisy environment modes over causal system modes, as shown by an impossibility theorem for linear-Gaussian dynamics and large-scale neural experiments.