LLM-based social simulations are scientifically useful only within boundaries set by behavioral variance, and current validation practice under-checks variance.
Anomalous fluctuations in Minority Games and related multi-agent models of financial markets
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abstract
We review the recent approaches to modelling financial markets based on multi-agent systems. After a brief summary of the basic stylised facts observed in real-market time-series we discuss some simple agent-based systems which are currently used to model financial markets. One of the most prominent examples is here the Minority Game (MG), which we address in some more detail. After a brief discussion of its basic setup and general phenomenology we summarise the main findings of the statistical mechanics analysis and discuss the emergence of stylised facts in extensions of the MG near their phase transitions between efficient and predictable regimes. We then turn towards more realistic variants which comprise heterogeneous populations of agents, with different memory capabilities, different inclinations to trade and varying expectations on the future evolution of the market. Finally we give a short outlook on potential future work in this area.
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LLM-Based Social Simulations Require a Boundary
LLM-based social simulations are scientifically useful only within boundaries set by behavioral variance, and current validation practice under-checks variance.