Linear probes on intermediate LLM activations produce better-calibrated confidence than verbalized probabilities, detect hidden evidence influence, and reveal that forecasts are largely pre-committed before reasoning begins.
Your answer will be evaluated using the BRIER SCORING RULE which is basically (- (1 - p)^2) if your answer is correct and (- 1 - p^2) if your answer is incorrect
1 Pith paper cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness
Linear probes on intermediate LLM activations produce better-calibrated confidence than verbalized probabilities, detect hidden evidence influence, and reveal that forecasts are largely pre-committed before reasoning begins.