A nowcasting method computes exceedance probabilities for large local earthquakes from counts of smaller events in surrounding ensembles, validated with ROC curves against UCERF3 forecasts for California sites.
Nowcast Function
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Exceedance Probabilities for Large Earthquakes From DIY Local Earthquake Ensemble Nowcasting and Forecasting
A nowcasting method computes exceedance probabilities for large local earthquakes from counts of smaller events in surrounding ensembles, validated with ROC curves against UCERF3 forecasts for California sites.