Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.
Explaining the favorite-long shot bias: Is it risk-love or misperceptions? Journal of Political Economy, 118 0 (4): 0 723--746
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The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Microstructure Evidence from the Polymarket Order Book
Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.