Applying Assurance 2.0 to a cyber-misuse safety case, the authors show that high top-level confidence requires extremely high confidence in every component, and propose an LLM-based Delphi for eliciting those component probabilities.
Confidence in assurance 2.0 cases
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Assessing confidence in frontier AI safety cases
Applying Assurance 2.0 to a cyber-misuse safety case, the authors show that high top-level confidence requires extremely high confidence in every component, and propose an LLM-based Delphi for eliciting those component probabilities.