OO-EPC converts odds to probabilities by enforcing equal profitability confidence across outcomes and outperforms prior odds-only methods on 90k football matches; FL-GLM adds one favourite-longshot bias parameter to a GLM and outperforms standard multinomial and logistic versions.
Forecasting Sports Tournaments by Ratings of (Prob)abilities: A Comparison for the EURO 2008 , year =
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Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models
OO-EPC converts odds to probabilities by enforcing equal profitability confidence across outcomes and outperforms prior odds-only methods on 90k football matches; FL-GLM adds one favourite-longshot bias parameter to a GLM and outperforms standard multinomial and logistic versions.