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2026 11

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On the optimal prediction of extreme events

math.ST · 2026-06-24 · unverdicted · novelty 7.0

Optimal homogeneous extreme predictors are non-extreme conditional quantiles of tilted distributions from the angular measure, with universally consistent peaks-over-threshold estimators.

Fast Computation of Free-Support Wasserstein Medians

stat.CO · 2026-06-17 · unverdicted · novelty 7.0

Direct fixed-weight solver for free-support Wasserstein medians relocates atoms using OT barycentric projections and inverse-distance weights, achieving monotone descent on smoothed objectives with fewer subproblems than nested Weiszfeld baselines.

A homogenization principle for total variation

math.PR · 2026-04-04 · conditional · novelty 7.0

Total variation between products of measures is at least a universal constant times that between the averaged measures' products.

Scale selection for geometric medians on product manifolds

math.ST · 2026-05-08 · unverdicted · novelty 6.0

Joint location-scale minimization for geometric medians on product manifolds degenerates to marginal medians, and three new scale-selection methods restore identifiability with asymptotic guarantees.

Density Evolution: A Multiscale View of Density Estimation

math.ST · 2026-05-29 · unverdicted · novelty 5.0

A review reframing density estimation as 'density evolution' across scales, linking kernel smoothing to heat flow, mixtures to compression, and topology to level sets, while stating three structural results on modes, Gaussian semigroups, and log-concavity.

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