MOVDA augments ELO with a fitted expected-margin model, using the difference between true and expected score margin to update ratings, and claims modest NBA prediction gains that are not statistically validated.
TrueSkill™: A Bayesian Skill Rating System,
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Beyond Winning: Margin of Victory Relative to Expectation Unlocks Accurate Skill Ratings
MOVDA augments ELO with a fitted expected-margin model, using the difference between true and expected score margin to update ratings, and claims modest NBA prediction gains that are not statistically validated.