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The finite-sample quantitative effect is documented in Panel A of Table E.3

The distinction between innovation-level serial uncorrelation, posterior-level persistence is the precise economic content: PSY’s rejection probability is driven by thelevel pathofT t, not by autocorrelation of ∆T t, so a martingale-diff · 1987

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General-Purpose Technology and Speculative Bubble Detection

econ.GN · 2026-04-28 · unverdicted · novelty 7.0 · 2 refs

Embedding a hump-shaped general-purpose technology shock in the Campbell-Shiller model makes fundamental prices locally explosive, distorting bubble tests; a projection onto technology proxies removes the distortion and shows no speculation in 2020-2025 AI stocks but confirms it in late-1999 dot-com

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  • General-Purpose Technology and Speculative Bubble Detection econ.GN · 2026-04-28 · unverdicted · none · ref 2 · 2 links

    Embedding a hump-shaped general-purpose technology shock in the Campbell-Shiller model makes fundamental prices locally explosive, distorting bubble tests; a projection onto technology proxies removes the distortion and shows no speculation in 2020-2025 AI stocks but confirms it in late-1999 dot-com