A DCNAR-based trajectory model estimates causal structures among institutional indicators, simulates their joint evolution, and defines failure risk as the probability that predicted paths cross degradation thresholds, outperforming Cox and discrete-time hazard models on longitudinal data.
The dataset contains 15 variables on 139 countries observed over a relatively short time horizon, forming a panel observed annually for approximately 35 years
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Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems
A DCNAR-based trajectory model estimates causal structures among institutional indicators, simulates their joint evolution, and defines failure risk as the probability that predicted paths cross degradation thresholds, outperforming Cox and discrete-time hazard models on longitudinal data.