Optimistic inflow-forecast bias weakly reduces water values, raises first-stage hydro discharge, depletes reservoirs, postpones thermal commitment, raises costs and reliability risk, and lowers hydropower producers' willingness to contract.
title Aprimoramento do Mecanismo de Forma c \ a o de Pre c o de Curto Prazo do Setor El\' e trico Brasileiro (Projeto META II)
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How optimistic inflow forecasts distort dispatch, prices, and contracts in hydro-dominated power systems: evidence from Brazil
Optimistic inflow-forecast bias weakly reduces water values, raises first-stage hydro discharge, depletes reservoirs, postpones thermal commitment, raises costs and reliability risk, and lowers hydropower producers' willingness to contract.