Leveraged perpetuals on binary prediction markets have an unavoidable terminal shortfall whenever leverage exceeds 1, and a resolution-aware redesign fails its pre-registered performance floors on observed Polymarket paths.
Produces SF1–SF9 (Section 5.6) as JSON time-series and as paper tables
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Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: Failure Modes and Mechanical Stress Tests Using Polymarket Data
Leveraged perpetuals on binary prediction markets have an unavoidable terminal shortfall whenever leverage exceeds 1, and a resolution-aware redesign fails its pre-registered performance floors on observed Polymarket paths.