Single-model ensemble spreads represent aleatoric uncertainty, quantified with GAMs and validated on reanalysis, showing reduced variability in Iberian drought regions that worsens under 3°C warming.
arXiv:2511.23448 [physics]
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Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty in Climate Models
Single-model ensemble spreads represent aleatoric uncertainty, quantified with GAMs and validated on reanalysis, showing reduced variability in Iberian drought regions that worsens under 3°C warming.