A Context-Contaminated Restart Model derives exact success probabilities and an optimal pipeline depth T* = sqrt(B * log(1/(1-ε1)) / log(1/(1-ε0))) for fixed budget B, validated on SWE-bench where it fits data far better than IID assumptions.
arXiv:2603.29231 (2026)
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TraceToChain models LLM agent traces as absorbing DTMCs using automatic clustering and smoothed MLE, with KS and AIC validation, to reconcile pass@k, pass^k, and RDC as projections of a single first-passage success-time distribution.
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Why Retrying Fails: Context Contamination in LLM Agent Pipelines
A Context-Contaminated Restart Model derives exact success probabilities and an optimal pipeline depth T* = sqrt(B * log(1/(1-ε1)) / log(1/(1-ε0))) for fixed budget B, validated on SWE-bench where it fits data far better than IID assumptions.
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Measuring the Unmeasurable: Markov Chain Reliability for LLM Agents
TraceToChain models LLM agent traces as absorbing DTMCs using automatic clustering and smoothed MLE, with KS and AIC validation, to reconcile pass@k, pass^k, and RDC as projections of a single first-passage success-time distribution.