Decomposing predictions into between-unit, within-unit-across-time, and counterfactual components shows within-unit accuracy is a structurally better proxy than overall accuracy for recovering true causal treatment effects from non-experimental panel data.
Oscar Barriga-Cabanillas, Joshua E
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Prediction decomposition for causal analysis
Decomposing predictions into between-unit, within-unit-across-time, and counterfactual components shows within-unit accuracy is a structurally better proxy than overall accuracy for recovering true causal treatment effects from non-experimental panel data.