Many established statistical ranking techniques produce orderings of reasoning LLMs under test-time scaling that closely match a Bayesian gold standard, with mean Kendall tau_b of 0.93-0.95 at full trials and best methods reaching 0.86 at single trials.
BayesU@N estimates the probability that a model solves a randomly drawn benchmark item under the sampling policy
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Ranking Reasoning LLMs under Test-Time Scaling
Many established statistical ranking techniques produce orderings of reasoning LLMs under test-time scaling that closely match a Bayesian gold standard, with mean Kendall tau_b of 0.93-0.95 at full trials and best methods reaching 0.86 at single trials.