A log-probability-weighted LLM forecast aggregator achieves Brier 0.186 on a small backtest, but the improvement over baseline is not statistically tested or isolated.
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Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events
A log-probability-weighted LLM forecast aggregator achieves Brier 0.186 on a small backtest, but the improvement over baseline is not statistically tested or isolated.