Conformal prediction generates valid sets of future conflict state sequences under a Markov assumption, providing robust uncertainty quantification compared to point predictions from likelihood methods.
The 2023/24 views prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty.Journal of Peace Research, 62(6):2070–2087
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Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Conformal prediction generates valid sets of future conflict state sequences under a Markov assumption, providing robust uncertainty quantification compared to point predictions from likelihood methods.