An empirical Bayes factor based on a Savage-Dickey density ratio tests whether all random effects are zero without fitting multiple models.
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abstract
Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior. Here we demonstrate that Jeffreys prior, the best-known uninformative choice, introduces enormous bias when applied to typical scientific models. Such models have a relevant effective dimensionality much smaller than the number of microscopic parameters. Because Jeffreys prior treats all microscopic parameters equally, it is from uniform when projected onto the sub-space of relevant parameters, due to variations in the local co-volume of irrelevant directions. We present results on a principled choice of measure which avoids this issue, leading to unbiased inference in complex models. This optimal prior depends on the quantity of data to be gathered, and approaches Jeffreys prior in the asymptotic limit. However, this limit cannot be justified without an impossibly large amount of data, exponential in the number of microscopic parameters.
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stat.ME 1years
2025 1verdicts
UNVERDICTED 1representative citing papers
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To Vary or Not To Vary: A Flexible Empirical Bayes Factor for Testing Variance Components
An empirical Bayes factor based on a Savage-Dickey density ratio tests whether all random effects are zero without fitting multiple models.