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Candidacy and Trigger: A Two-Phase Empirical Model of Hierarchical Collapse

physics.soc-ph · 2026-05-18 · unverdicted · novelty 5.0

Empirical tests on country data support a candidacy-and-trigger model of hierarchical collapse, where structural variables identify high-risk cases a decade in advance and a classifier achieves 0.91 AUC while rejecting endogenous explanations.

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  • Candidacy and Trigger: A Two-Phase Empirical Model of Hierarchical Collapse physics.soc-ph · 2026-05-18 · unverdicted · none · ref 3

    Empirical tests on country data support a candidacy-and-trigger model of hierarchical collapse, where structural variables identify high-risk cases a decade in advance and a classifier achieves 0.91 AUC while rejecting endogenous explanations.