The prospects for constraining dark energy with future X-ray cluster gas mass fraction measurements

We examine the ability of a future X-ray observatory to constrain dark energy via measurements of the cluster X-ray gas mass fraction, fgas. We find that fgas measurements for a sample of ~500 hot, X-ray bright, dynamically relaxed clusters, to a precision of ~5 per cent, can be used to constrain dark energy with a Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) figure of merit of 15-40, with the possibility of boosting these values by 40 per cent or more by optimizing the redshift distribution of target clusters. Such constraints are comparable to those predicted by the DETF for other leading, planned dark energy experiments. A future fgas experiment will be preceded by a large X-ray or SZ survey that will find hot, X-ray luminous clusters out to high redshifts. Short `snapshot' observations with the new X-ray observatory should then be able to identify a sample of ~500 suitably relaxed systems. The redshift, temperature and X-ray luminosity range of interest has already been partially probed by existing X-ray cluster surveys which allow reasonable estimates of the fraction of clusters that will be suitably relaxed for fgas work. Our analysis uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method which fully captures the relevant degeneracies between parameters and facilitates the incorporation of priors and systematic uncertainties in the analysis. We explore the effects of such uncertainties for scenarios ranging from optimistic to pessimistic. We conclude that the fgas experiment will provide tight constraints on the mean matter and dark energy densities, with a peak sensitivity for dark energy work at redshifts midway between those of supernovae and baryon acoustic oscillation/weak lensing/cluster number counts experiments. In combination, these experiments should enable a precise measurement of the evolution of dark energy. (Abridged)