Circumstellar water vapour in M-type AGB stars: Radiative transfer models, abundances and predictions for HIFI

Aims: By performing a detailed radiative transfer analysis, we determine fractional abundances of circumstellar H2O in the envelopes around six M-type asymptotic giant branch stars. The models are also used to predict H2O spectral line emission for the upcoming Herschel/HIFI mission. Methods: We use Infrared space observatory long wavelength spectrometer spectra to constrain the circumstellar fractional abundance distribution of ortho-H2O, using a non-local thermal equilibrium, and non-local, radiative transfer code based on the accelerated lambda iteration formalism. The mass-loss rates and kinetic temperature structures for the sample stars are determined through radiative transfer modelling of CO line emission based on the Monte-Carlo method. The density and temperature profiles of the circumstellar dust grains are determined through spectral energy distribution modelling using the publicly available code Dusty. Results: The determined ortho-H2O abundances lie between 1e-4 and 1.5e-3 relative to H2, with the exception of WX Psc, which has a much lower estimated ortho-H2O abundance of only 2e-6, possibly indicating H_2O adsorption onto dust grains or recent mass-loss-rate modulations. The estimated abundances are uncertain by, at best, a factor of a few. Conclusions: The high water abundance found for the majority of the sources suggests that either the `normal' chemical processes are very effective in producing H2O, or else non-local thermal equilibrium atmospheric chemistry, grain surface reactions, or a release of H_2O (e.g. from icy bodies like Kuiper belt objects) play a role. We provide predictions for ortho-H2O lines in the spectral window of Herschel/HIFI.