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arxiv: 0812.2248 · v4 · submitted 2008-12-11 · 🧮 math.PR · nlin.CD

Chaos in a spatial epidemic model

classification 🧮 math.PR nlin.CD
keywords dispersallatticeepidemicfinitesystembecomechaoschaotic
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We investigate an interacting particle system inspired by the gypsy moth, whose populations grow until they become sufficiently dense so that an epidemic reduces them to a low level. We consider this process on a random 3-regular graph and on the $d$-dimensional lattice and torus, with $d\geq2$. On the finite graphs with global dispersal or with a dispersal radius that grows with the number of sites, we prove convergence to a dynamical system that is chaotic for some parameter values. We conjecture that on the infinite lattice with a fixed finite dispersal distance, distant parts of the lattice oscillate out of phase so there is a unique nontrivial stationary distribution.

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