An outlook on event rates of induced earth quakes in the Netherlands: a preliminary analysis

The increasing rate in earth quakes in the Netherlands is attributed to the enhanced depletion of Groningen natural gas, currently at a rate of 50 billion m3 per year. We performed a model-independent analysis of the earth quake event counts in KNMI data. We find an exponential growth since 2001 with a standard deviation of 0.37% and a doubling time of 6.2 years, giving rise to one event per day in 2025. A trend in the magnitude of the quakes is indiscernible. There is no apparent sensisitivity to NAM pruduction of natural gas, which increased linearly with a standard deviation of 9.4% over the last decade. We identify the earth quakes with an avalanche triggered by a pressure drop, currently 50% away from the equilibrium pressure at the depth of 3 km. Re-establishing pressure equilibrium will proceed with an anticipated drop in soil surface up to a few meters.