Path-space information bounds for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of stochastic dynamics

Uncertainty quantification is a primary challenge for reliable modeling and simulation of complex stochastic dynamics. Such problems are typically plagued with incomplete information that may enter as uncertainty in the model parameters, or even in the model itself. Furthermore, due to their dynamic nature, we need to assess the impact of these uncertainties on the transient and long-time behavior of the stochastic models and derive corresponding uncertainty bounds for observables of interest. A special class of such challenges is parametric uncertainties in the model and in particular sensitivity analysis along with the corresponding sensitivity bounds for stochastic dynamics. Moreover, sensitivity analysis can be further complicated in models with a high number of parameters that render straightforward approaches, such as gradient methods, impractical. In this paper, we derive uncertainty and sensitivity bounds for path-space observables of stochastic dynamics in terms of new goal-oriented divergences; the latter incorporate both observables and information theory objects such as the relative entropy rate. These bounds are tight, depend on the variance of the particular observable and are computable through Monte Carlo simulation. In the case of sensitivity analysis, the derived sensitivity bounds rely on the path Fisher Information Matrix, hence they depend only on local dynamics and are gradient-free. These features allow for computationally efficient implementation in systems with a high number of parameters, e.g., complex reaction networks and molecular simulations.