Enumerative geometry of elliptic curves on toric surfaces

We establish the equality of classical and tropical curve counts for elliptic curves on toric surfaces with fixed $j$-invariant, refining results of Mikhalkin and Nishinou--Siebert. As an application, we determine a formula for such counts on $\mathbb P^2$ and all Hirzebruch surfaces. This formula relates the count of elliptic curves with the number of rational curves on the surface satisfying a small number of tangency conditions with the toric boundary. Furthermore, the combinatorial tropical multiplicities of Kerber and Markwig for counts in $\mathbb P^2$ are derived and explained algebro-geometrically, using Berkovich geometry and logarithmic Gromov--Witten theory. As a consequence, a new proof of Pandharipande's formula for counts of elliptic curves in $\mathbb P^2$ with fixed $j$-invariant is obtained.