H0LiCOW III. Quantifying the effect of mass along the line of sight to the gravitational lens HE 0435-1223 through weighted galaxy counts

Based on spectroscopy and multiband wide-field observations of the gravitationally lensed quasar HE 0435-1223, we determine the probability distribution function of the external convergence $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ for this system. We measure the under/overdensity of the line of sight towards the lens system and compare it to the average line of sight throughout the universe, determined by using the CFHTLenS as a control field. Aiming to constrain $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ as tightly as possible, we determine under/overdensities using various combinations of relevant informative weighing schemes for the galaxy counts, such as projected distance to the lens, redshift, and stellar mass. We then convert the measured under/overdensities into a $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ distribution, using ray-tracing through the Millennium Simulation. We explore several limiting magnitudes and apertures, and account for systematic and statistical uncertainties relevant to the quality of the observational data, which we further test through simulations. Our most robust estimate of $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ has a median value $\kappa^\mathrm{med}_\mathrm{ext} = 0.004$ and a standard deviation of $\sigma_\kappa = 0.025$. The measured $\sigma_\kappa$ corresponds to $2.5\%$ uncertainty on the time delay distance, and hence the Hubble constant $H_0$ inference from this system. The median $\kappa^\mathrm{med}_\mathrm{ext}$ value is robust to $\sim0.005$ (i.e. $\sim0.5\%$ on $H_0$) regardless of the adopted aperture radius, limiting magnitude and weighting scheme, as long as the latter incorporates galaxy number counts, the projected distance to the main lens, and a prior on the external shear obtained from mass modeling. The availability of a well-constrained $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ makes \hequad\ a valuable system for measuring cosmological parameters using strong gravitational lens time delays.