An Initial Study on Load Forecasting Considering Economic Factors

This paper proposes a new objective function and quantile regression (QR) algorithm for load forecasting (LF). In LF, the positive forecasting errors often have different economic impact from the negative forecasting errors. Considering this difference, a new objective function is proposed to put different prices on the positive and negative forecasting errors. QR is used to find the optimal solution of the proposed objective function. Using normalized net energy load of New England network, the proposed method is compared with a time series method, the artificial neural network method, and the support vector machine method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is more effective in reducing the economic cost of the LF errors than the other three methods.