Emergence of Scaling in Complex Substitutive Systems

Diffusion processes are central to human interactions. One common prediction of the current modeling frameworks is that initial spreading dynamics follow exponential growth. Here, we find that, ranging from mobile handsets to automobiles, from smart-phone apps to scientific fields, early growth patterns follow a power law with non-integer exponents. We test the hypothesis that mechanisms specific to substitution dynamics may play a role, by analyzing a unique data tracing 3.6M individuals substituting for different mobile handsets. We uncover three generic ingredients governing substitutions, allowing us to develop a minimal substitution model, which not only explains the power-law growth, but also collapses diverse growth trajectories of individual constituents into a single curve. These results offer a mechanistic understanding of power-law early growth patterns emerging from various domains and demonstrate that substitution dynamics are governed by robust self-organizing principles that go beyond the particulars of individual systems.