Mutation and selection in bacteria: modelling and calibration

Temporal evolution of a clonal bacterial population is modelled taking into account reversible mutation and selection mechanisms. For the mutation model, an efficient algorithm is proposed to verify whether experimental data can be explained by this model. The selection-mutation model has unobservable fitness parameters and, to estimate them, we use an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm. The algorithms are illustrated using in vitro data for phase variable genes of Campylobacter jejuni.