Ranking and Repulsing Supermartingales for Reachability in Probabilistic Programs

Computing reachability probabilities is a fundamental problem in the analysis of probabilistic programs. This paper aims at a comprehensive and comparative account on various martingale-based methods for over- and under-approximating reachability probabilities. Based on the existing works that stretch across different communities (formal verification, control theory, etc.), we offer a unifying account. In particular, we emphasize the role of order-theoretic fixed points---a classic topic in computer science---in the analysis of probabilistic programs. This leads us to two new martingale-based techniques, too. We give rigorous proofs for their soundness and completeness. We also make an experimental comparison using our implementation of template-based synthesis algorithms for those martingales.