Probing dark matter structure down to 10⁷ solar masses: flux ratio statistics in gravitational lenses with line of sight halos

Strong lensing provides a powerful means of investigating the nature of dark matter as it probes dark matter structure on sub-galactic scales. We present an extension of a forward modeling framework that uses flux ratios from quadruply imaged quasars (quads) to measure the shape and amplitude of the halo mass function, including line of sight (LOS) halos and main deflector subhalos. We apply this machinery to 50 mock lenses --- roughly the number of known quads --- with warm dark matter (WDM) mass functions exhibiting free-streaming cutoffs parameterized by the half-mode mass $m_{\rm{hm}}$. Assuming cold dark matter (CDM), we forecast bounds on $m_{\rm{hm}}$ and the corresponding thermal relic particle masses over a range of tidal destruction severity, assuming a particular WDM mass function and mass-concentration relation. With significant tidal destruction, at $2 \sigma$ we constrain $m_{\rm{hm}}<10^{7.9} \left(10^{8.4}\right) M_{\odot}$, or a 4.4 (3.1) keV thermal relic, with image flux uncertainties from measurements and lens modeling of $2\% \left(6\%\right)$. With less severe tidal destruction we constrain $m_{\rm{hm}}<10^{7} \left(10^{7.4}\right) M_{\odot}$, or an 8.2 (6.2) keV thermal relic. If dark matter is warm, with $m_{\rm{hm}} = 10^{7.7} M_{\odot}$ (5.1 keV), we would favor WDM with $m_{\rm{hm}} > 10^{7.7} M_{\odot}$ over CDM with relative likelihoods of 22:1 and 8:1 with flux uncertainties of $2\%$ and $6\%$, respectively. These bounds improve over those obtained by modeling only main deflector subhalos because LOS objects produce additional flux perturbations, especially for high redshift systems. These results indicate that $\sim 50$ quads can conclusively differentiate between warm and cold dark matter.