Effects of green revolution led agricultural expansion on net ecosystem service values in India

Ecosystem Services are a bundle of natural processes and functions that are essential for human well-being, subsistence, and livelihood. The expansion of cultivation and cropland, which is the backbone of the Indian economy, is one of the main drivers of rapid Land Use Land Cover changes in India. To assess the impact of the Green Revolution led agrarian expansion on the total ecosystem service values, we first estimated the ESVs from 1985 to 2005 for eight ecoregions in India using several value transfer approaches. Five explanatory factors such as Total Crop Area, Crop Production, Crop Yield, Net Irrigated Area, and Cropping Intensity representing the cropping scenarios in the country were used in constructing local Geographical Weighted Regression model to explore the cumulative and individual effects on ESVs. A Multi-Layer Perceptron based Artificial Neural Network algorithm was employed to estimate the normalized importance of these explanatory factors. During the observation periods, cropland, forestland, and water bodies have contributed the most and form a significant proportion of ESVs, followed by grassland, mangrove, wetland, and urban builtup. In all three years, among the nine ESs, the highest ESV accounts for water regulation, followed by soil formation and soilwater retention, biodiversity maintenance, waste treatment, climate regulation, and gas regulation. Among the five explanatory factors, TCA, NIA, CP showed a strong positive association with ESVs, while the CI exhibited a negative association. The study reveals a strong association between GR led agricultural expansion and ESVs in India.