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arxiv: 2212.12742 · v2 · submitted 2022-12-24 · 💰 econ.GN · q-fin.EC

Global LCOEs of decentralized off-grid renewable energy systems

Jann Michael Weinand , Maximilian Hoffmann , Jan G\"opfert , Tom Terlouw , Julian Sch\"onau , Patrick Kuckertz , Russell McKenna , Leander Kotzur
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Jochen Lin{\ss}en Detlef Stolten
This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-24 10:18 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💰 econ.GN q-fin.EC
keywords off-grid renewable energyLCOEdecentralized systemscost trends100 percent renewableenergy storagecase study reviewglobal overview
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The pith

Off-grid renewable energy systems average 0.29 dollars per kWh in 2021 after falling 9 percent per year since 2016.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This review assembles LCOE figures reported in case studies of autonomous off-grid renewable systems worldwide. It documents a broad span from 0.03 to more than 1.00 dollars per kWh in 2021 dollars. For systems that rely entirely on renewables the average fell steadily at 9 percent each year from 0.54 to 0.29 dollars per kWh, attributed mainly to falling prices for solar, wind and storage. The paper also enumerates seven recurring sources of over- or under-estimation in published LCOE calculations and offers practical steps to reduce them. The compiled numbers are intended to let readers check other studies and judge where such systems can be deployed at acceptable cost.

Core claim

The paper establishes that the average LCOE for 100 percent renewable decentralized off-grid systems declined by 9 percent annually between 2016 and 2021, moving from 0.54 to 0.29 dollars per kWh in 2021 terms. This decline is linked to cost reductions in renewable generation and storage technologies. Across all reviewed studies the LCOE values range from 0.03 to over 1.00 dollars per kWh. Seven distinct reasons for systematic over- or under-estimation in the literature are identified and discussed.

What carries the argument

Meta-review and averaging of LCOE values drawn from published case studies of decentralized off-grid renewable energy systems, normalized to 2021 dollars.

If this is right

  • The observed cost decline supports wider economic deployment of off-grid renewables in remote or underserved regions.
  • The overview supplies a benchmark that later studies can use to verify their own LCOE results.
  • Recognition of the seven common estimation errors can reduce bias in future off-grid system assessments.
  • Continued tracking of these costs can reveal how quickly technology price reductions translate into lower LCOEs.
  • The reported range helps planners identify locations where current off-grid systems already meet cost thresholds.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the 9 percent annual decline persists, average costs could fall below 0.15 dollars per kWh by 2030, widening the set of viable off-grid sites.
  • Standardizing LCOE methodology across studies would allow clearer separation of real cost differences from calculation artifacts.
  • The wide LCOE spread implies that local resource quality and demand patterns matter more than global averages for project decisions.
  • Policy support focused on storage cost reduction could amplify the observed downward trend beyond what generation-price declines alone achieve.

Load-bearing premise

The selected case studies form a representative global sample and LCOE values calculated under differing assumptions, locations, and methods can be directly compared and averaged.

What would settle it

A new global compilation of recent case studies that, after normalizing for methodology and location differences, shows no decline or an increase in average LCOE for 100 percent renewable off-grid systems.

read the original abstract

Recent global events emphasize the importance of a reliable energy supply. One way to increase energy supply security is through decentralized off-grid renewable energy systems, for which a growing number of case studies are researched. This review gives a global overview of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for these autonomous energy systems, which range from 0.03 \$_{2021}/kWh to over 1.00 \$_{2021}/kWh worldwide. The average LCOEs for 100% renewable energy systems have decreased by 9% annually between 2016 and 2021 from 0.54 \$_{2021}/kWh to 0.29 \$_{2021}/kWh, presumably due to cost reductions in renewable energy and storage technologies. Furthermore, we identify and discuss seven key reasons why LCOEs are frequently overestimated or underestimated in literature, and how this can be prevented in the future. Our overview can be employed to verify findings on off-grid systems, to assess where these systems might be deployed and how costs evolve.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript is a literature review that compiles LCOE values for decentralized off-grid renewable energy systems drawn from global case studies. It reports a worldwide range of 0.03 to over 1.00 $2021/kWh and states that average LCOEs for 100% renewable systems declined by 9% annually from 0.54 $2021/kWh in 2016 to 0.29 $2021/kWh in 2021, attributing this presumably to technology cost reductions. It further identifies seven reasons for LCOE misestimation in the literature and suggests uses for the overview in verifying findings and assessing deployment.

Significance. If the reported range and temporal trend rest on a transparent, representative, and standardized sample, the compilation would supply a practical benchmark for researchers and policymakers evaluating the economics of off-grid renewables and their role in energy security.

major comments (3)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the headline claims (global range, 0.54-to-0.29 decline, 9% annual rate) are presented without any description of literature search criteria, inclusion/exclusion rules, number of studies per year, or the exact averaging procedure used to obtain the reported means and trend.
  2. [Data compilation section] Data compilation section: LCOE figures drawn from studies that differ in discount rates, project lifetimes, capacity factors, technology mixes, and inclusion of soft costs are directly averaged after only currency normalization; no meta-regression, re-calculation under common assumptions, or weighting is described, leaving the 9% decline vulnerable to shifts in study composition.
  3. [Results] Results: the statement that the observed decline is 'presumably due to cost reductions in renewable energy and storage technologies' is unsupported by any decomposition, sensitivity check, or control for confounding factors such as changes in geographic focus or study methodology across the 2016–2021 window.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The currency normalization to $2021 is referenced but the precise inflation indices, exchange-rate sources, and base-year conversion steps are not stated.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments. We respond point-by-point to the major comments below, with revisions planned to enhance methodological transparency while preserving the scope of this literature review.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the headline claims (global range, 0.54-to-0.29 decline, 9% annual rate) are presented without any description of literature search criteria, inclusion/exclusion rules, number of studies per year, or the exact averaging procedure used to obtain the reported means and trend.

    Authors: Abstracts are space-constrained and prioritize findings over methods. The search criteria, inclusion/exclusion rules, study counts per year, and averaging procedure (simple mean after currency normalization) are described in the Data compilation section. We will revise the abstract to add a short clause noting the systematic literature review basis and directing readers to the methods for details, including study counts. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Data compilation section] Data compilation section: LCOE figures drawn from studies that differ in discount rates, project lifetimes, capacity factors, technology mixes, and inclusion of soft costs are directly averaged after only currency normalization; no meta-regression, re-calculation under common assumptions, or weighting is described, leaving the 9% decline vulnerable to shifts in study composition.

    Authors: This is a literature review reporting published LCOE estimates rather than a meta-analysis that re-standardizes assumptions (which would require unavailable primary data). We agree the direct averaging leaves the trend potentially sensitive to study composition changes. We will revise the Data compilation section to explicitly state the averaging method, report the number of studies per year, and add a limitations paragraph discussing varying assumptions and composition effects. revision: yes

  3. Referee: [Results] Results: the statement that the observed decline is 'presumably due to cost reductions in renewable energy and storage technologies' is unsupported by any decomposition, sensitivity check, or control for confounding factors such as changes in geographic focus or study methodology across the 2016–2021 window.

    Authors: The term 'presumably' was used to link the trend to well-documented technology cost declines, but we accept that it lacks supporting decomposition or controls in our data. We will revise the Results section to remove the causal phrasing and report only the observed decline, noting consistency with external cost trends without implying causation from our compilation alone. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

Literature review aggregates external LCOE values without internal derivation

full rationale

The paper is a review that extracts and averages LCOE values reported in the cited literature (abstract and full text describe collecting case studies and computing simple averages and annual decline rates from those external figures). No equations, fitted parameters, predictions, or uniqueness claims appear that reduce to self-defined quantities or self-citations. The central trend is a direct statistical summary of the collected sample; any concerns about heterogeneity or representativeness affect external validity but do not constitute circularity in the derivation chain.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

As a review paper the central claims rest entirely on the methodologies and data quality of the underlying case studies; no new free parameters, axioms, or invented entities are introduced by the authors.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption LCOE values reported across heterogeneous studies are sufficiently comparable to support global averaging and trend extraction.
    Invoked when the paper reports an average decline and worldwide range without detailing normalization steps.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5758 in / 1325 out tokens · 25099 ms · 2026-05-24T10:18:31.822410+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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