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arxiv: 2605.23616 · v1 · pith:FX7YK4E7new · submitted 2026-05-22 · 💰 econ.GN · q-fin.EC

Value-focused modelling to generate alternatives -- Coupling multi-criteria decision analysis and optimisation models to support strategic decisions

Emily Bergup , Jonas Finke , Sebastian Sch\"ar , Valentin Bertsch This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-25 02:27 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💰 econ.GN q-fin.EC
keywords value-focused modelling to generate alternativesmodelling to generate alternativesmulti-criteria decision analysisenergy system modelsstakeholder engagementnear-optimal alternativesdecarbonisation planning
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The pith

VF-MGA couples MCDA and MGA to integrate stakeholder objectives into generation of near-optimal alternatives.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper proposes value-focused modelling to generate alternatives (VF-MGA) as a bidirectional coupling of modelling to generate alternatives and multi-criteria decision analysis. Traditional MGA produces many near-optimal configurations but without ensuring they reflect stakeholder interests, while MCDA typically evaluates only a small number of pre-defined options. VF-MGA uses objectives elicited from stakeholders in the MCDA stage to guide the MGA algorithm toward diversification that remains feasible and near-optimal. In the case study of decarbonising a university campus energy supply with eleven stakeholders, the approach produced 691 alternatives, supported identification of relevant ones through preference-based evaluation, and yielded differentiated information on acceptable ranges for system choices.

Core claim

VF-MGA systematically integrates stakeholder objectives into the generation of 691 alternatives reflecting stakeholder-relevant interests, enables the identification of stakeholder-relevant alternatives from this large set through MCDA-based evaluation, and provides more differentiated stakeholder preference information by evaluating a large and diverse set of alternatives, thereby revealing acceptable ranges for system options.

What carries the argument

Bidirectional coupling between MGA and MCDA, in which MCDA-elicited stakeholder objectives inform the MGA diversification step before the resulting alternatives are scored in MCDA.

If this is right

  • Stakeholder objectives directly shape the space of near-optimal alternatives examined in energy system planning.
  • A large and diverse set of alternatives becomes available for structured MCDA scoring rather than relying on a handful of pre-selected options.
  • Evaluation of many alternatives produces information on acceptable ranges for system characteristics that single-alternative studies cannot reveal.
  • The method supplies a generalisable template for combining quantitative optimisation with participatory preference analysis in other complex planning domains.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same coupling structure could be tested in non-energy domains such as transport or water infrastructure where stakeholder groups hold conflicting quantitative objectives.
  • If the translation step from MCDA weights to MGA constraints proves robust, the approach might reduce the risk that important but hard-to-quantify concerns are overlooked in purely model-driven searches.
  • Repeated application with varying numbers of stakeholders would show whether the number of generated alternatives scales usefully with the number of elicited objectives.

Load-bearing premise

Stakeholder objectives elicited during MCDA can be translated into the MGA algorithm so that the generated alternatives stay feasible and near-optimal while still representing the original interests without substantial bias or loss of meaning.

What would settle it

A concrete falsifier would be an independent review in which stakeholders or experts judge that the 691 generated alternatives systematically omit important concerns raised in the MCDA elicitation or that the revealed preference ranges fail to predict choices when stakeholders are presented with new options outside the set.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.23616 by Emily Bergup, Jonas Finke, Sebastian Sch\"ar, Valentin Bertsch.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Methodology of value-focused modelling to generate alternatives (VF-MGA). VF-MGA couples MGA with MCDA [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Attribute levels of the VF-MGA modelling results. Each facet displays the attribute levels (y-axis) for one [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Weights (y-axis) for eleven low-level objectives grouped in high-level objectives (colours) as elicited in the interviews [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Heat map of stakeholder rankings for all alternatives, where colours indicate the rank of each alternative and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Energy generation variability across alternatives. Dark dashed lines represent the full set of generated alternatives, [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Heat map illustrating the normalised frequency of use per technology and stakeholder within their respective 10% [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p024_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Energy generation from heating technologies across the 10% best-ranked alternatives per stakeholder. Box plots [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p024_7.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Decision support methods from operations research are widely used to support complex planning decisions. Within the energy sector, energy system models (ESMs) applying modelling to generate alternatives (MGA) generate large sets of near-optimal, different system configurations. However, they typically generate and analyse alternatives in the model variable space without ensuring stakeholder relevance. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), in contrast, provides a structured means to account for conflicting objectives and heterogeneous stakeholder interests but often relies on a limited set of pre-defined alternatives that may not appropriately represent the feasible solution space. To address these limitations, this work proposes value-focused modelling to generate alternatives (VF-MGA), a novel methodology that bidirectionally couples MGA and MCDA. Stakeholder objectives elicited within the MCDA inform the MGA-algorithm, enabling a stakeholder-orientated diversification of the alternatives, which are subsequently evaluated within the MCDA based on elicited stakeholder preferences, thereby providing a comprehensive decision basis. Applied to a case study on the decarbonised energy supply of a large university campus, involving eleven stakeholders representing diverse institutional groups, VF-MGA (i) systematically integrates stakeholder objectives into the generation of 691 alternatives reflecting stakeholder-relevant interests, (ii) enables the identification of stakeholder-relevant alternatives from this large set through MCDA-based evaluation, and (iii) provides more differentiated stakeholder preference information by evaluating a large and diverse set of alternatives, thereby revealing acceptable ranges for system options. With this, VF-MGA provides a generalisable methodology for complex planning decision integrating quantitative modelling with participatory decision analysis.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript proposes VF-MGA, a bidirectional coupling of modelling to generate alternatives (MGA) within energy system models and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Stakeholder objectives elicited in MCDA are used to diversify the MGA search, producing a large set of near-optimal alternatives that are then scored and filtered via MCDA. The method is demonstrated on a decarbonisation case study for a university campus involving eleven stakeholders from diverse institutional groups; the authors report generation of 691 alternatives, MCDA-based identification of stakeholder-relevant options, and revelation of acceptable ranges for system configurations.

Significance. If the coupling can be shown to preserve original objective trade-offs without substantial bias or information loss, VF-MGA would constitute a meaningful advance in participatory energy-system planning by combining the exploratory breadth of MGA with structured preference elicitation. The case-study scale (691 alternatives evaluated across multiple stakeholders) illustrates the potential to move beyond small pre-defined alternative sets while still grounding results in elicited values.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract / Methods] Abstract and Methods (bidirectional coupling description): The claim that stakeholder objectives are systematically integrated to produce 691 alternatives 'reflecting stakeholder-relevant interests' is load-bearing for the three numbered contributions. No explicit mapping procedure, constraint formulation, or pseudocode is supplied showing how MCDA-elicited objectives are translated into the MGA diversification mechanism, nor is any sensitivity test or comparison against unconstrained MGA reported to confirm absence of modeler bias or information loss. This directly affects the weakest assumption identified in the review.
  2. [Case study / Results] Case-study results (generation of 691 alternatives and acceptable-range identification): The manuscript reports the final set size and MCDA evaluation outcomes but supplies no implementation details, validation checks, sensitivity tests, or error analysis (e.g., stability of the 691-set under alternative objective translations or constraint relaxations). Without these, the differentiated preference information and acceptable-range claims cannot be assessed for robustness.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: The sentence describing the three contributions is long and could be split for readability; the parenthetical numbering (i)–(iii) is helpful but the preceding clause repeats 'stakeholder-relevant' three times.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive feedback and for recognizing the potential contribution of VF-MGA. We address each major comment below and indicate the revisions we will make.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract / Methods] Abstract and Methods (bidirectional coupling description): The claim that stakeholder objectives are systematically integrated to produce 691 alternatives 'reflecting stakeholder-relevant interests' is load-bearing for the three numbered contributions. No explicit mapping procedure, constraint formulation, or pseudocode is supplied showing how MCDA-elicited objectives are translated into the MGA diversification mechanism, nor is any sensitivity test or comparison against unconstrained MGA reported to confirm absence of modeler bias or information loss. This directly affects the weakest assumption identified in the review.

    Authors: We agree that an explicit description of the mapping is needed to support the claims. The methods section describes the bidirectional coupling conceptually, but we will add a dedicated subsection with the precise constraint formulation, the procedure for translating the eleven stakeholders' MCDA-elicited objectives into MGA diversification weights, and pseudocode for the modified MGA algorithm. We will also include a sensitivity comparison of the 691-alternative set against a standard (unconstrained) MGA run to quantify any shift in the explored space. These additions will be made in the revised manuscript. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Case study / Results] Case-study results (generation of 691 alternatives and acceptable-range identification): The manuscript reports the final set size and MCDA evaluation outcomes but supplies no implementation details, validation checks, sensitivity tests, or error analysis (e.g., stability of the 691-set under alternative objective translations or constraint relaxations). Without these, the differentiated preference information and acceptable-range claims cannot be assessed for robustness.

    Authors: We acknowledge that additional implementation and validation details would improve assessability. In revision we will expand the case-study section with (i) the exact solver settings and termination criteria used to reach the 691 alternatives, (ii) a stability check of the final set under small perturbations of the objective translation parameters, and (iii) a brief error analysis of the MCDA scoring step. The acceptable-range claims are derived from the spread of stakeholder scores; the added checks will allow readers to evaluate their robustness directly. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: VF-MGA is a methodological proposal applied to an external case study

full rationale

The paper proposes VF-MGA as a bidirectional coupling of MGA and MCDA, with stakeholder objectives from MCDA informing alternative generation and subsequent MCDA evaluation on the resulting set. No equations, fitted parameters, or self-citations are presented that reduce the central claims (generation of 691 alternatives, identification via MCDA, revelation of preference ranges) to inputs by construction. The case study involves eleven external stakeholders and an independent university campus decarbonisation scenario; the derivation chain consists of a new workflow description rather than any self-definitional loop, fitted-input prediction, or load-bearing self-citation. The translation step from elicited objectives to MGA constraints is described procedurally but does not mathematically equate output to input.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Only the abstract is available; specific free parameters, axioms, and invented entities cannot be identified from the provided text.

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